Commercial Aviation in 50 Years

CommercialAviation Issues

Any study ofaviation improvements must address the overriding issues ofcommercial travel today. One cannot overlook the events of September11, 2001 and the terrorism threat in all countries and in allairplanes – which are now considered as potential weapons. Earlierherein, a possibility of using nuclear fuel to power airplanes wasdiscussed in general aviation. However, in commercial aviation, anuclear reactor on board would be an unintended boon to terroristswanting to maximize damages and injury to their enemies. Keepingahead of this issue would offer clues to minimizing this risk. As itstands now, hijacked planes are often intercepted by militaryaircraft; and in extreme cases are shot down to prevent deaths ofmore innocent people. The engines must be secured before this canhappen. If the pilots are incapacitated by terrorists their enginesmust be equipped with a mechanism to be safely jettisoned. This couldbe solved by giving ATC authority to override the controls of theaircraft to essentially 'push the button'. In order to prevent adisgruntled ATC member from sabotaging an aircraft, a secondary ortertiary override switch must be included to be activated bydifferent people.

Nuclearreactors aboard aircraft are a serious consideration, and seriousmeasures must therefore be implemented. The cost saved in fuel wouldmore than justify the cost of hardware, software, and the extratraining. Think of GPS technology and the incredible infrastructurethat wasneeded to be built for this technology to work reliably. Aviationsaw the potential and was willing to spend the necessary resourcesto improve safety, efficiency, and reliability. Such discussions ofinnovations must put cost of implementation secondary until athorough cost analysis can be done.

BirdStrikes

Recently in thenews there has been added emphasis placed on bird strikes. The mostnotable as of late is the US Airways Flight 1549 into the HudsonRiver piloted by Captain Chesley Sullenberger III. A bird strikeshortly after takeoff incapacitated both engines of the Airbus A320. An extensive narration of the incident will not be revisited here.Rather, let it suffice to say that bird strikes are a currenthot-button topic in the current environment because of the addedpublicity they have received. Although current measures are put inplace in order to avoid bird strikes, it is now painfully obviousthat further measures are needed to to eliminate the undesiredeffects of all bird strikes.

Currently,anti-bird strategies are only employed by the larger, and busiestairports. This makes sense considering the higher volume of peopleand the higher liabilities that lie near larger airports. The FAA, incooperation with the Department of Agriculture, the Animal and PlantHealth Inspection Service, and the Wildlife Service came out with aninteresting 18-year report on wildlife strikes to aircraft.Information disseminated from this report will only emphasize thebird strikes. Such information is important in to assess where, when,and why the majority of bird strikes occur, and in turn providerecommendations to eliminate or reduce the risk by innovation and/orprevention. Importantly it must be noted that avoiding bird strikesis not so much a safety issue as it is an economical concern.Airplanes that are not flying because of repairs or beingdeemed non-airworthy pose a significant economic strain—almostsecondary to human safety.

Some figures fromthe report:

“For the 18-year period (1990-2007), 82,057 strikes were reportedto the FAA. Birds were involved in 97.5 percent of the reportedstrikes, terrestrial mammals in 2.1 percent, bats in 0.3 percent andreptiles in 0.1 percent. The number of strikes annually reportedmorethan quadrupled from 1,759 in 1990 to a record 7,666 in 2007. Wesuggest that the increase in reports from 1990 to 2007 was the resultof several factors: an increased awareness of the wildlife strikeissue, an increase in aircraft operations, an increase in populationsof hazardous wildlife species, and an increase in the number ofstrikes. The temporary plateau in reported strikes from 2000-2003 maybe related to a slight (<6 percent) decline in air traffic afterthe events of September 2001.” (Dolbeer, Wright, 2008)

Also of relevance:

“Most bird strikes (51 percent) occurred between July and October(Table 6); 62 percent occurred during the day (Table 7); 60 percentoccurred during the landing (descent, approach, or landing roll)phase of flight; and 37 percent occurred during takeoff and climb.About 60 percent of the bird strikes occurred when the aircraft wasat a height of 100 feet or less AGL, 73 percent occurred at 500 feetor less AGL, and 92 percent occurred at or below 3,000 feet AGL(Table 9). Less than 2 percent of bird strikes occurred above 10,000feet AGL. The record height for a reported bird strike involvingcivil aircraft in USA was 32,500 feet AGL. . . . The aircraft components most commonly reported asstruck by birds were the nose/radome, windshield, engine, wing/rotor,and fuselage.” (Dolbeer, Wright, 2008)

It can be concludedthat in order to prevent the majority of all bird strikes aneffective mitigation efforts need to be most effective, or evenactivated at low altitudes (below 3000' AGL) and during all hours ofthe day. The trend seems to be that airport-based bird preventionmeasures are what people have accepted as an appropriate and viableway to get rid of all birds. In order to eliminate bird strikes inthe future, should we solely focus on the airports themselves? Couldthere be another economically smart way to rethink this whole system?

Here is a proposal—aircraft-based bird strike prevention. As itstands now, there are rotating 'beams of sound' on approach anddeparture ends of runways designed to annoy birds and force them offthe airport. Logically, it would make sense to implement this sort ofmeasure on an airplane. For example, a checklist item for beforetakeoff or decent should include activating a switch that wouldproduce the same directional high frequency noise extendingthroughout the flight path of the aircraft. Such noise would annoythe birds as to change their own flight path and prevent them fromflying on a collision course with a bird much bigger than them. Somewould argue the noise would just add to the cumbersome noises alreadyproduced by airplanes. Such concerns should be alleviated as suchfrequencies and their pulses would render it impossible for even themost acute human ear to perceive. Another advantage to such a systemwould not restrict the best bird-prevention practices, in essence, inevery airport. More correctly it can be said that bird preventionmeasures are everywhere an aircraft flies. Seems almost too logicalnot to not have been thought of previously.

TheTrue Future of Commercial Aviation

Admittedly, most of the issues herein discussed, and even theirpotential solutions are most closely required by current aviation.However, the most exciting things in aviation today are the conceptsconceived and managed by the optimistic futurists. As mentioned inthe beginning, Orville Wright saw incredible innovation during hislife time. Witnessing his humble beginis of home-built aircraft allthe way through to becoming a jet powered thing of beauty. Orvillewas only 32 years old when he invented modern aviation history. Thenext 44 years of his life was witness to some incredible advances toaviation. It should be asked by any reader that will live the next 44years, 'what will happen next in in aviation?' Admittedly, much ofwhat is to be subsequently discussed is speculative but effort hasbeen made to minimize far-fetchedness and to maximize realism.

There are manypossibilities to discuss in the next forty years in the future in:avionics, safety, propulsion, and most excitingly, the very-realpossibility of sub-orbital travel. Avionics is just now processingthe necessary technology to fly an airplane almost by itself. Imaginea fully integrated display.

Avionics definitelyeven has the potential to make ATC obsolete. Some excitingpossibilities include: Showing real-time weather and aircraftperformance calculations based on pilot input, real time airspaceboundaries and alerts to show penetration or warnings, show yourroute including where other airplanes are in the vicinity, how toavoid them, and the most economic or time-saving way to reach yourdestination.

CommercialAvionics

I believe that avionics will someday make ATC all but obsolete. ATC now basically just separates traffic from other traffic. Imagine looking at a displaythat routes you automatically around other airplanes, around weather,and even give you a priority if your fuel is low by communicating toall other airplane avionics systems in the vicinity. A normal flightdisplay, even in zero-visibility situations would show you where therunway is, a cue when to rotate, finish checklists, and show a'highway' in the sky on where to merge and go to next. An on-screennotification would show that your flight plan is open, and since noclearance will be needed, a route around other aircraft and even anassigned altitude that would make your travel the fastest and mostfuel-efficient. Altitude assignments would no longer be needed forseparation of traffic, but rather for most favorable winds androutes. An on-screen alert would also give you a specific fuel-airmixture based on the outside air temperature and alert you whenyou've reached the proper setting. An airplane approaches from therear and is about to overtake you. Your on-screen alert already showsyour plane, its type, speed, destination, and perhaps even thepilot’s name. Airplanes are no longer referred to by a registrationnumber, but by pilot name which makes pilot-to-pilot communicationless ambiguous when unusual traffic is encountered. The overtakingpilot's on-screen display shows a modified path around your airplanewhich includes a safe distance and wake-turbulence avoidance. Theovertaking plane advances without incident. Next, a PIREP isautomatically reported on your flight path. Immediately, your flightplan is rerouted, with the display already modified, and the flightservice station flashes a notification on your PFD that the flightplan has been amended. Coming in on approach to a socked-in airportis no trouble since the airport is already displayed correctly on thePFD. The approach sequence is in place as well as all appropriatechecklist items to be cleared only by enacting them. The airport isnot in visual sight because of the clouds, but it is shown on the PFD. You land without incident and even taxi into theramp correctly.

One concern about current flights conducted within a sophisticatedglass cockpit is that pilots are focusing too much on the inside thecockpit. One of the reasons is that the pilot cannot see otherairplanes or terrain. However, the new avionics exploits this alreadyinstinctual reaction by displaying all airplanes and all terrainwithin in the vicinity of the airplane. This is possible because allairplanes have automatic flight plans filed and open, and all havethese same avionics. Reality, augmented with information pertinentto any flight, would no doubt increase situational awareness andoverall safety in the industry—an ambitious venture, but the costssaved by making air traffic control obsolete would be well worth theinvestment. The technological parts and pieces already exist; theonly issue would be to convince the many people involved of anuntested industry-wide innovation—not to mention theair-traffic-controller unions. At any rate, the possibilities areincredible and no doubt would improve the experience of flying.

Safety

Safety is another major concern with the new age of flight. Fasterplanes, potentially dangerous fuels, and the added appeal toterrorists must all be addressed. With airplanes traveling faster,concerns of weather phenomena such as wind shear and micro burstscould have dangerous effects on aircraft. Such concerns can beaddressed by the evolution of materials and engineering that arealready being seen today. Advanced composites, stronger than steeland significantly lighter, not only improved the structural integrityof an aircraft, but its range and speed. As mentioned before, itcosts fuel to move fuel. The same can be said of added weight. Itcosts weight to move weight. Advances in avionics and weatherreporting as well as improvements in composite materials will make for a significantly indestructible vessel.

Terrorists seem to get smarter as the countermeasures to preventthem evolve. Speculating on what terrorists could be capable of inthe future is difficult, but we can assume that two things terroristscan do to airplanes that can be most destructive is detonatingexplosive devices on the airplane, or taking control of the aircraft. The latter seems to have a more convincing solution if the airplanecould potentially be taken over remotely, or even automaticallyfollow a diversion programmed in to the specific flight.

Say terrorists have taken over an aircraft and has diverted it from astrict flight plan. The software would note this, then automaticallyfly it and even land it at a diverted airport where law enforcementwill be ready to engage them. Rendering the aircraft impossible tooverride by terrorists even if controls are destroyed would be anobvious deterrent to anyone planning an act. If an airplane can flywithout a pilot (should emergency dictate) and impossible to divertotherwise, it would be obvious to future hijackers that such planswould be quickly foiled. Unrelated to terrorism, this samecountermeasure could be utilized if an airplane experiences a failurethat incapacitates both pilots.

An bomb explosion within an airplane is hard to design for. However,it is possible that the same advances in composite materials couldreinforce an aircraft in this situation. Recently an oxygen tankruptured on a commercial flight and blew a hole the size of a smallcar. The plane landed without incident. The survival of the peopleon board can be attributed to the structural integrity already inplace in the aircraft design. A possible design measure for survivinga terrorist blast would be to make an incredibly strong fuselagewith newer materials.

Sub-OrbitalFlight

Finally, the possibility of sub-orbital commercial flight should notbe ignored. First, flying at higher flight levels has its advantages.Increasing the area in which aircraft can fly makes it harder forairplanes to run into each other. Two foot-long fish in a bathtubhave a greater chance of running into each other than if they were inthe ocean. Secondly, flying higher increases true airspeed because ofthe colder temperatures. In essence, planes travel faster overall.

A huge step backward for aviation, the supersonic Concorde, ended itservice early in the 21^st century. In the United Statessupersonic flight has been outlawed since 1968 due to the effects ofsonic booms on communities not excluding broken window, car alarms,and public discomfort. (Rubner, 2005) One attractive aspect ofsub-orbital flight is the lessened effect of a sonic boom. The higherin altitude one flies, the less-dense the air becomes. A sonic boomrequires air molecules to exist before a sound can be made. When noair molecules exist, or when their spacing is incredibly far, soundeffects no longer exist. If ultra-high altitude flight then becomesfeasible due to engine upgrades and innovation, then it is notinconceivable to have passengers travel from say, Sydney Australia toLondon, England in far less time and without any stopovers.

PowerPlants

Currently engine technology is researching the possibility of ascramjet, capable of reaching speeds to Mach 12-24. If the distancebetween Sydney, Australia and London, England is 10557.5 miles(infoplease.com, 2009) then an aircraft could theoretically reacheither place in 36-68 minutes. Incredible speeds. Although themechanics of such an engine are complex—essentially a funnel-like chamber through which supersonic air iscompressed and ignited, and an exit nozzle where the speed exitsfaster then it came in. Technology is just now being researched thatwill be the next-generation propulsion that will cut travel speeds to'shrink' the world at a rate our ancestors never thought possible.Concerns understandably arise as this whole new industry becomes aneveryday possibility. At first, people will be wary of using suchinnovations for domestic and international travel. Such technologieswill not enjoy a record of reliability for perhaps a century. Itwould be hard to convince many aviation companies to take such arisk. To be fair, these same arguments have existed in almost everyindustry. The Old gives way to the New until the New proves itself. It may take generations, but aviation follows a very predictablepath. It gets better all the time. It improves, learns from itsmistakes and innovates from its problems.

Conclusion

Humanity willcontinue to evolve, learn, and progress. Aviation is a concept thathas been dreamed of since humans recognized the inherent blessingsgiven to birds in flight. It is only now where humanity can enjoythe gift of flight. Perhaps originally invented for the leisure ofman, it has evolved into an effective way to travel, conductbusiness, and even enjoy life. Unfortunately it has also displayedits share of setbacks and disasters. If we are to witness miraculouspossibilities in our lifetime, we have to be open-minded and investin improvement and innovation. In the time it took for Orville Wrightto see his powered cloth-and-wire apparatus turn into a jet-poweredaluminum wonder, we may see a jet-powered aluminum wonder turn intosub-orbital auto-navigators that fly millions of people, millions ofmiles, millions of times—safely.